Aurora Forecast &
Best Viewing Locations
Worldwide

The aurora borealis, commonly known as the northern lights, is one of nature's most spectacular displays. These ethereal ribbons and curtains of light result from interactions between the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. When charged particles from the sun, primarily electrons and protons, are channeled by Earth's magnetic field toward the polar regions, they collide with atmospheric gases at altitudes between 80 and 300 kilometers.

The colors you see depend on which atmospheric gas is excited and at what altitude. Oxygen atoms at 100 to 200 km produce the familiar green glow, the most common aurora color. At higher altitudes above 200 km, oxygen emits a rarer red light. Nitrogen molecules produce blue and purple hues, most commonly seen at the lower edges of aurora curtains. During intense geomagnetic storms, all these colors can appear simultaneously, creating a full spectrum of light across the sky.

Solar Cycle 25, the current 11-year cycle of solar activity, reached its solar maximum phase in late 2024 and into 2025, and elevated activity is expected to continue through 2026. This means aurora displays are more frequent, more vivid, and visible at lower latitudes than during solar minimum years. The May 2024 G5 extreme geomagnetic storm produced aurora visible as far south as Mexico, Hawaii, and the Mediterranean, an event that had not occurred at that intensity since 2003.

Predicting when and where aurora will appear relies on monitoring the sun and the solar wind in real time. NASA and NOAA operate a network of satellites, including the DSCOVR and ACE spacecraft positioned at the L1 Lagrange point (1.5 million km from Earth, toward the sun), that measure the solar wind before it reaches our planet. When these satellites detect a coronal mass ejection or a high-speed solar wind stream approaching with a strong southward magnetic field component (negative Bz), forecasters can predict geomagnetic storm conditions 30 to 60 minutes in advance.

The KP index, the primary metric used in aurora forecasting, is derived from magnetic field measurements at 13 geomagnetic observatories around the world. These stations measure how much the local magnetic field deviates from its quiet-day values, and the results are combined into a single planetary index. Values of KP 0 to 3 represent quiet to unsettled conditions. KP 4 indicates an active geomagnetic field. KP 5 and above represent geomagnetic storms, classified on the NOAA G-scale from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme). Each step up on the KP index expands the auroral oval roughly 2 to 3 degrees of latitude further south.

Our forecast model combines real-time KP data from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center with cloud cover predictions from the Open-Meteo weather API and moon phase calculations to produce a single viewing probability percentage for each location. This helps answer the most important question: will you actually be able to see the northern lights from where you are tonight?